Should stock investment really be separated from the masses?
All humans have a natural tendency to follow the crowd. It offers safety and comfort.
As humanity evolved, it understood that its survival depended on sticking together and working as a group.
This legacy is inherited by all humans and is reflected in the sense of security we feel when we follow the crowd.
It is adaptive in most cases. (Instinct)
Although there may be significant individual differences in the extent to which people pay attention to the crowd, some follow too much while others follow too little, most successful members of society have seen the advantages of following the crowd.
They have learned the rules to follow and the standards to strive for. For example, in school, adhering to rules is beneficial to us.
Blind obedience to authority may not be beneficial, but compromise is.
It is crucial to protect one's own interests while being within the range of acceptable behavior in order to succeed.Cultivating clear, solid personal values and developing a well-defined personal identity is also very important.
This clear definition of oneself allows a person to be self-sufficient. At the right time, people can go with the crowd, but when it is necessary to protect their own interests, they can effortlessly go their own way.
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Although often reminded of the pitfalls of following the crowd, it is important to acknowledge that it is adaptive in most cases.
(For example, we strive to minimize unnecessary risks in our daily lives.
We prefer to raise children in safe communities, and many people prefer to live in houses that are less likely to be destroyed by natural disasters.)
In the market, sometimes "following the crowd" is not a bad decision.
(For example, for long-term investments, it is wise to put your money into stocks that do not have much volatility, and all signs indicate that these stocks have a solid foundation that can drive the stock up for several years.)
If enough of the "crowd" firmly believes that the company will generate profits over decades, then following these profits will be beneficial to you,
Therefore, following the crowd anytime, anywhere is not bad, especially for those who do not like to take risks.
On the other hand, if you are a businessman, you are not looking for a safe investment.You are seeking volatility (to achieve excess returns), necessary risk, and good opportunities for profit.
Most of the time, this means going your own way.
It requires people to think like contrarians, guessing what the crowd is going to do next, and predicting how the movement of the masses can benefit you as a trader.
The key is to know when to follow the crowd and when to go against it.
(Emphasis)
The crowd is usually right until a turning point occurs.
When almost everyone believes the market is moving in a particular direction, there are hardly any traders who can further push this trend.
At that point, the contrarian starts and pushes the market in the opposite direction.
The challenge lies in predicting when the turning point will happen, foreseeing and devising a trading plan to take advantage of the turning point.
Now, theoretically, all of this sounds easy, but in practice, it is difficult to leverage this cycle to implement a trading strategy.How to predict turning points?
Some say it's nearly impossible. (Risk-averse individuals call it gambling, speculation)
What you can do is develop a method that can be used in most situations, but also acknowledge that it may fail.
Whether you use technical indicators or luckily leverage media news to play to your advantage, you must temporarily believe in your method, invest capital, and assume that if you do everything right, luck will be on your side for enough trades.
(And control risk by all means; otherwise, you will be a victim, not a victor, of relative risk trading.)
Bucking the trend is a person with a special character, someone who is not afraid of risk but does not seek it out, someone who looks inward and does not let others rest easy.
It is necessary to study the market creatively and try to devise an innovative trading plan.
It requires a lot of experience and thought, but by adopting the right perspective, gaining broad experience, and honing your trading skills, you can break away from the crowd and achieve consistent and profitable trading (excess returns).
Investment failure and losses are not terrible,
What is terrible is making risk operations based on emotions, buying and selling at will,The fear arises from an unwillingness to take any risks due to the fear of incurring losses.