Warren Buffett's top ten investment suggestions
Warren Buffett's investment advice is timeless. I have lost count of the number of investment mistakes I have made over the years, but almost all of them fall under one of the 10 investment tips given by Warren Buffett that I have listed below.
By keeping Buffett's investment advice in mind, investors can avoid common pitfalls that can damage returns and jeopardize financial goals.
Warren Buffett's Investment Advice
After careful consideration, I have selected my top 10 Warren Buffett investment tips in the list below. Each piece of wisdom is backed by at least one quote from Warren Buffett and is helpful for investors seeking safer stocks. Let's dive in.
1. Invest in what you know... and that's it.
One of the simplest ways to make avoidable mistakes is to engage in overly complex investments. Many of us have worked in only a few different industries throughout our entire careers. We may have a fairly strong grasp of how these specific markets operate and which companies are the best in the field.However, the vast majority of publicly traded companies are involved in industries where we have little to no direct experience.
"Never invest in a business you cannot understand." - Warren Buffett
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This does not mean that we cannot invest in these market sectors, but we should proceed with caution.
I believe that the operations of the vast majority of companies are difficult for me to comprehend. I will be the first to tell you that I cannot predict the success of drug development in biotech companies, forecast the next major trend in youth clothing, or determine the next technological breakthrough that will drive the growth of semiconductor chips.
These types of complex issues can significantly affect the earnings generated by many companies in the market, but they are arguably unpredictable.
When I encounter such businesses, my response is simple: "Pass."
There are too many fish in the sea to research a company or industry that is hard to understand. Therefore, Warren Buffett has always avoided investing in the technology sector.
If I cannot reasonably understand how a company makes money and the main drivers affecting the industry within 10 minutes, then I move on to the next idea.
Out of an estimated 10,000+ publicly traded companies, I estimate that no more than a few hundred companies meet my personal criteria for simplifying business.
Peter Lynch once said: "Never invest in an idea that you cannot explain with crayons."By staying within our circle of competence and choosing Crayola, many mistakes can be avoided.
2. Never compromise on business quality
While it is easy to say "no" to complex businesses and industries, identifying high-quality businesses is more challenging.
Warren Buffett's investment philosophy has evolved over the past 50 years, almost exclusively focusing on purchasing high-quality companies with long-term sustainable growth opportunities.
It may surprise some investors to learn that the name Berkshire Hathaway comes from one of Buffett's worst investments.
Berkshire Hathaway was in the textile manufacturing business, and Buffett was lured into purchasing the business due to its low price.
He believed that if you buy stocks at a low enough price, some unexpected good news will usually emerge, and even if your long-term business performance remains poor, you will have the opportunity to unload the position at a substantial profit.
Warren Buffett's years of experience have changed his stance on "cigar butt" investing. He says that this method of buying businesses is foolish unless you are a liquidator.
After all, the original "bargain" price may not be as cheap as it seems. In troubled businesses, one problem is solved much earlier than others. These types of companies also typically yield low returns, further eroding the value of the initial investment.
These insights led Buffett to create the following famous quote:"Buying a wonderful company at a fair price is far better than buying a fair company at a wonderful price." - Warren Buffett
One of the most important financial ratios I use to measure the quality of a business is the return on invested capital.
Companies that generate high returns on the capital tied up in their business have the potential to increase their earnings faster than businesses with lower returns. As a result, the intrinsic value of these enterprises rises over time.
"Time is the friend of the wonderful business, the enemy of the mediocre." - Warren Buffett
A higher return on capital creates value and often indicates the presence of an economic moat. I prefer to invest in companies that generate high (10-20%+) and stable returns on investment.
Make sure you are satisfied with the quality of the company's business, rather than being tempted to buy dividend stocks with a 10% yield or to snap up a company's stock at "only" 8 times earnings.
3. When buying stocks, plan to hold them forever
Once you've purchased a high-quality business at a fair price, how long should you hold on to it?
"If you don't want to own a stock for ten years, don't even think about owning it for ten minutes." - Warren Buffett"Our favorite holding period is forever." - Warren Buffett
"If you've done your job right when buying common stock, selling time is almost never." - Phil Fisher
Warren Buffett clearly has a buy-and-hold mentality. He has held positions for decades in some cases.
Why? On one hand, it is difficult to find excellent companies that can maintain a bright outlook over the long term (for this reason, Buffett runs a concentrated portfolio).
Moreover, high-quality businesses will generate high returns and increase in value over time. As Warren Buffett (Warren Buffett) said, time is the friend of the good business. Fundamentals may take several years to affect the price of a stock, and only patient investors can reap the rewards.
Lastly, trading activity is the enemy of investment returns. Constantly buying and selling stocks can devour returns in the form of taxes and trading commissions. Instead, we are usually best off choosing to "buy right and sit tight."
"The stock market is designed to transfer money from the active to the patient." - Warren Buffett
4. Diversification Can Be Dangerous
I believe that individual investors will reap most of the benefits from diversification when they own 20 to 60 stocks across multiple industries.
However, many mutual funds have hundreds of stocks in their portfolios. Warren Buffett is the exact opposite. As early as 1960, Buffett's largest position was 35% of his entire portfolio!In short, Warren Buffett steadfastly invests in his best ideas and recognizes that the market rarely offers outstanding companies at reasonable prices.
"You will notice that our major equity holdings are relatively few. We have long chosen such investments, weighing the same factors involved in purchasing 100% of a business operation: (1) good long-term economic characteristics; (2) competent and honest management; (3) an attractive purchase price relative to the standards of valuation for a private owner; (4) an industry with long-term business characteristics that we understand and can judge. It is difficult to find investments that meet these criteria, which is one of the reasons for our concentrated holdings. We simply cannot find a hundred securities that meet our investment requirements. However, we are very satisfied to be able to concentrate our assets in a much smaller number that we believe to be attractive.
When such opportunities arise, he pounces.
"Opportunities are rare. When it rains, take out your money, not your umbrella." - Warren Buffett
On the other hand, out of fear and/or ignorance, some investors overly diversify their portfolios. Owning 100 stocks effectively makes it nearly impossible for investors to keep up with the current events affecting their companies.
Excessive diversification also means that the portfolio may be invested in many mediocre businesses, thereby diluting the impact of its high-quality assets.
"Diversification is a protection against ignorance. It makes no sense for those who know what they are doing." - Warren Buffett
Perhaps Charlie Munger summed it up best:
"The idea of over-diversification is insane." - Charlie Munger
How many stocks do you own? If the answer is over 60, you might seriously consider downsizing your portfolio to focus on the highest quality assets.5. Most news is noise, not news.
Every day, news items clamor for attention in my inbox. When I was a notorious headline reader, I almost wiped out all the information that was being pushed in its own way.
The 80-20 rule claims that about 80% of outcomes can be attributed to 20% of the causes of events.
For financial news, I believe it's more like a 99-1 rule - 99% of our investment actions should be attributed to only 1% of the financial news we consume.
Most news headlines and conversations on television can create a buzz and trigger our emotions to do something - anything!
"However, stock owners often let the capricious and irrational behavior of their peers also lead to their own irrational actions. Due to issues such as the market, economy, interest rates, and stock price behavior, some investors believe it is important to listen to expert opinions, and worse, consider acting based on their own opinions." - Warren Buffett
So far, I have focused on companies that have withstood the test of time in my investments. Many businesses have been operating for over a hundred years, almost facing all imaginable unexpected challenges.
Imagine how many gloomy pieces of "news" have been generated in their corporate lives. Yet, they still stand.
Does it really matter if Coca-Cola missed its quarterly earnings expectations by 4%?
Should I sell my position in Johnson & Johnson because the stock price has dropped 10% since my initial purchase?As oil prices fall, reducing Exxon Mobil's profits, should I sell my stocks?
The answer to these questions is almost always a resounding "no," but as these questions arise, stock prices may fluctuate significantly. Financial news media also need to sensationalize these issues to keep their business going.
"Remember, the stock market is a manic-depressive." - Warren Buffett
As investors, we need to ask ourselves whether a piece of news has truly affected the long-term profitability of our companies.
If the answer is no, then we might take the opposite action from what the market does (for example, due to a disappointing earnings report caused by temporary factors, Coca-Cola fell by 4% - consider buying stocks).
The stock market is an unpredictable, dynamic force. We need to be highly selective about the news we choose to listen to, let alone take action. I believe this is one of the most important pieces of investment advice.
6. Investing is not rocket science, but there is no "easy button"
One of the biggest misconceptions about investing might be that only smart people can successfully pick stocks.
However, raw intelligence can be said to be one of the least predictive factors for investment success.
"You don't need to be a rocket scientist. Investing is not a game where people with an IQ of 160 beat people with an IQ of 130." - Warren BuffettWarren Buffett's investment philosophy does not require genius, but it is very difficult for anyone to consistently beat the market and avoid behavioral mistakes. Equally important, investors must remain aware that there are no magical rules, formulas, or "easy buttons" that can produce results that outperform the market. It does not exist, nor will it ever.
Investors should be skeptical of models based on history. Built by what sounds like nerdy nerds... these models look very impressive. However, investors often forget to check the assumptions behind the models. Beware of freak formulas." - Warren Buffett
Anyone who claims to have such a system to boost business is either naive or a better snake oil salesman than the one in my book. Beware of self-proclaimed "masters" who will sell you an investment system based on rules. If such a system really existed, the owner would, of course, not need to sell books or subscriptions.
"It is easier to fool people than to convince them that they have been fooled." - Mark Twain
It is okay to follow general investment principles, but investing is still a difficult art that requires thought and should not feel easy.
"This is not easy. Anyone who finds it easy is a fool." - Charlie Munger
7. Know the difference between price and value
Stock prices are constantly pushed at us. For some reason, investors like to stare at the running quotes on the screen.
"The stock market is full of people who know everything about prices but nothing about value." - Phil FisherHowever, stock prices inherently fluctuate more than the underlying fundamentals of the business (in most cases).
In other words, in the market, there is zero correlation between stock prices and the long-term prospects of a company.
During financial crises, there are many bargains as investors quickly sell off all companies, regardless of their business quality and long-term profit potential.
During economic downturns, many companies continue to strengthen their competitive advantages and emerge from the crisis with a brighter future.
In other words, the company's stock price (temporarily) separates from its fundamental business value.
"During the extraordinary financial panic that occurred at the end of 2008, despite the obvious brewing of a severe recession, I never thought of selling my farm or New York real estate. And if I owned 100% of a solid business with a good long-term outlook, it would be foolish for me to even consider abandoning it. So, why would I sell stocks in those businesses that are only lightly involved? Indeed, any one of them may ultimately be disappointing, but as a group, they will certainly do well." - Warren Buffett
As long-term investors, we need to heed Warren Buffett's investment advice to buy quality products when prices fall.
"Price is what you pay. Value is what you get." - Warren Buffett
Stock prices fluctuate with investor sentiment, but this does not mean that the company's future cash flows have changed.
Although there is always some debate surrounding the future earnings streams of a company, the degree of disagreement is usually far less than the volatility of stock prices.Investors need to distinguish between price and value, focusing their efforts on high-quality companies that trade at the most reasonable prices.
8. The best moves are often boring
Investing in the stock market is not a path to quick riches.
If anything, I believe the stock market is best suited for moderate growth of our existing capital over the long term.
Investing does not mean being exciting, especially dividend growth investing, which is a conservative strategy.
Instead of trying to find the next big winner in emerging industries, it is better to invest in companies that have already proven their worth.
"We will not attempt to pick a few winners from unproven businesses. We are not smart enough to do that, and we know it." - Warren Buffett
After all, the goal is to find quality businesses that can compound value over many years. If we do it right, the returns on our investment portfolio will take care of themselves.
Many companies with a long history of success offer basic products and services - snacks, beverages, toothpaste, medicines, convenience stores, etc.
Although not the most exciting businesses, the slow pace of industry change can often protect industry leaders. Many companies in the Dividend Aristocrats Index and the Dividend Kings list benefit from this phenomenon."Beware of investment activities that prompt applause; great moves are usually met with yawns." - Warren Buffett
There is no need to try to become a hero or impress anyone with our investments. Boredom may be beautiful.
9. Low-cost index funds are wise for most investors
Did you know that most investors cannot beat the market and often fall far short of it?
We harm our performance in many different ways - attempting to time the market, taking on too much risk, engaging in emotional trading, venturing beyond our circle of competence, and so on.
What's worse, many actively managed investment funds charge excessive fees that devour returns and dividend income.
Despite Warren Buffett arguably being the most prolific stock picker of all time, he still advocated for the use of passive index funds in his 2013 shareholder letter.
Once Buffett passes away and his Berkshire Hathaway shares are distributed to charitable organizations, Buffett's trustees have clear instructions to follow:
"The advice I have for trustees could not be more simple: put 10% of the cash in short-term government bonds and 90% in a very low-cost S&P 500 index fund. (I suggest Vanguard's.) I believe that the long-term results from this policy will be superior to those achieved by most investors—whether pension funds, institutions, or individuals—who employ high-fee managers." - Warren BuffettLow-cost passive indexing may be a good strategy for many investors to consider, especially if they are not concerned with generating a steady dividend income (ETF dividends tend to be lumpy and more easily cut during bear markets). Most stock pickers cannot produce performance that justifies their higher fees.
10. Only listen to those you know and trust
Warren Buffett has emphasized in letters to shareholders and occasional interviews the importance of investing only in trustworthy, capable management teams.
In short, Warren Buffett is very cautious when choosing business partners and managers. Their actions can make or break investments for many years to come.
"Once management has shown itself to be insensitive to the interests of owners, shareholders will suffer the long-term agony of the price/value ratio that their stock offers (relative to other stocks), no matter how management assures that the dilutive actions taken are a similar event." - Warren Buffett
Warren Buffett obviously has more connections than any of us, which undoubtedly helps him understand who the best and most trustworthy management teams are in specific industries.
Although we lack the resources to truly assess the character and skills of the CEOs of publicly traded companies for investment purposes, we can certainly control whose advice we listen to when choosing investments and managing our portfolios.
The financial world is filled with many characteristics - good and bad. Unfortunately, many people realize that they can quickly make money by preying on investors' unrealistic expectations, fears, and feelings of greed.
Many financial "experts" and business discussion leaders are in the business of attracting eyeballs to sell more advertising, sensational claims to gain new subscribers, or convincing investors to trade to earn commissions.
None of these activities benefit individual investors, and the prevalence of self-proclaimed "experts" is no better at predicting the future than we are. They just have to play the role of Mr. Confidence to benefit their own interests."We have long felt that the only value of stock forecasters is to make astrologers look good." - Warren Buffett
In reality, most "experts" issuing advice use daily standards that are quite average.
"Wall Street is the only place that people drive in to get advice from those who took the subway." - Warren Buffett
One of my "safe dividend" missions is to eliminate the noise and heads that have seeped into the financial world.
I urge investors to continue to focus on the facts, recognize the randomness involved in investing, set realistic expectations, and stick with it.
No one cares more about your nest egg than you do, and investors relying on retirement dividends don't get a second chance.
"Managerial changes, like marriage changes, are painful, time-consuming, and beyond anyone's control." - Warren Buffett
Beware of those you trust!
Summary thoughts on Warren Buffett's investment advice
We often make investing more difficult. Warren Buffett follows a simple approach based on common sense. My experience as an equity research analyst can certainly relate to his investment skills, but that doesn't mean they are always easy to understand!By adopting some investment advice from Warren Buffett (focusing on the long term, sticking to blue-chip stocks, and staying within our circle of competence), we can better manage our investment portfolios to reduce the costly mistakes we make and continually approach the realization of our goals.