Investment psychology - 13 microeconomic models
What is a Mental Model?
Mental models are the ways we understand the world. They influence not only our thoughts and comprehension but also the connections and opportunities we see. Mental models are how we simplify complexity, why we consider some things more relevant than others, and how we reason.
Mental models are simply representations of how things work. We cannot hold all the details of the world in our brains, so we use models to simplify complex things into understandable and organizable chunks.
1. Opportunity Cost
Doing one thing means not doing another. We live in a world of trade-offs, and the concept of opportunity cost governs everything. The most apt summary is "There is no such thing as a free lunch."
2. Creative Destruction
The term "creative destruction" was coined by economist Joseph Schumpeter, and it describes the process of capitalism within a properly functioning free-market system. Driven by individual incentives (including but not limited to economic gains), entrepreneurs will push each other in an endless game of creative one-upmanship, destroying old ideas and replacing them with new technologies in the process. Beware of being left behind.
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3. Comparative Advantage
Scottish economist David Ricardo had an unusual, counterintuitive insight: two people, two companies, or two countries can benefit from trade with each other, even if one is better at everything. Comparative advantage is best seen as an application of opportunity cost: if an entity has the opportunity to trade, it will forgo the free gains of productivity because it does not specialize in what it does best.4. Specialization
Another Scottish economist, Adam Smith, emphasized the advantages gained from specialization within a free market system. Smith explained that rather than having a group of workers produce an entire product from start to finish, it is usually more efficient for each of them to focus on one aspect of production. However, he also warned that each worker might not enjoy such a life; this is a trade-off of the specialization model.
5. Control the Center
In chess, the winning strategy often involves seizing control of the center of the board, thereby maximizing the potential moves and controlling the movement of the greatest number of pieces. The same strategy can be profitable in business, as evidenced by John D. Rockefeller's control over the oil refinery business in the early days of the oil trade and Microsoft's control over the operating system in the early days of the software trade.
6. Trademarks, Patents, and Copyrights
These three concepts, along with other related concepts, protect the creative labor of individual entrepreneurs, thus providing additional incentives for creativity and promoting the creative destruction model of capitalism. Without these protections, information and creative workers would not be able to withstand the free distribution of their works.
7. Double-Entry Bookkeeping
One of the marvels of modern capitalism is the accounting system introduced in 14th-century Genoa. The double-entry bookkeeping system requires that every entry, such as revenue, also be recorded in another corresponding account. Proper double-entry bookkeeping serves as a check against potential accounting errors, allowing for accurate records and thus more precise behavior by company owners.
8. Utility (Marginal, Diminishing, Increasing)
The utility of an additional unit of any good often varies with scale. Marginal utility allows us to understand the value of an extra unit, and in most practical areas of life, utility decreases at some point. On the other hand, in certain situations, an additional unit may be affected by a "tipping point," at which the utility function discontinuously jumps up or down. For example, giving water to a thirsty person, the marginal utility decreases with each additional unit, and eventually, enough units could kill him.9. Bribery
In mainstream economics, the concept of bribery is often overlooked, yet it is central to human systems: if given the chance, paying an agent to look the other way is often easier than following the rules. Then, the enforcers of the rules are suppressed. The principal-agent problem can be seen as a form of arbitrage.
10. Arbitrage
Suppose two markets sell the same commodity, and if the commodity can be bought at a profit in one market and sold at a profit in the other, then arbitrage exists. This pattern is seemingly simple on the surface but can appear in disguised forms: the only gas station within a 50-mile radius is also engaging in arbitrage because it can buy and sell gasoline at an expected profit (temporarily) without interference. Almost all arbitrage situations eventually vanish as they are discovered and exploited.
11. Supply and Demand
The fundamental equation of biological and economic life is the limited supply of necessary goods and competition. Just as biological entities compete for limited available energy, economic entities also compete for limited customer wealth and limited product demand. The point at which the supply and demand for a particular good are equal is called the equilibrium point; however, in real life, the equilibrium point is often dynamic and constantly changing, rather than static.
12. Scarcity
Game theory describes situations of conflict, limited resources, and competition. Under certain conditions, what decisions might competitors make, and what decisions should they make, given limited resources and time? It is worth noting that traditional game theory might portray humans as more rational than they actually are. Game theory, after all, is a theory.
13. Mr. Market
Investor Benjamin Graham introduced Mr. Market in his seminal book "The Intelligent Investor" to represent the fluctuations of financial markets. As Graham explained, the market is a bit like a moody neighbor, sometimes happy and sometimes sad— as an investor, your job is to take advantage of him when he is in a bad mood and sell to him when he is in a good mood. This attitude contrasts sharply with the efficient market hypothesis, in which Mr. Market always wakes up in the middle of the bed, not feeling overly powerful in any direction.Please provide the text you would like translated into English.